The future of European defense will involve “less America.” The United States and Europe are increasingly out of step on priorities and timelines. Europe must prepare for “every possible scenario.”

Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer is president of the German Marshall Fund, a U.S. think tank that promotes cooperation between the United States and Europe. We meet her in Rome during a European tour aimed at strengthening the organization’s presence across the continent. At the center of her institutional meetings is the need to rethink the historic relationship between Europe and the United States. The challenge is figuring out how.

You have spoken of a redefinition of the transatlantic compact. What exactly does Washington want from the Europeans?

“For roughly 80 years, what I call the transatlantic compact meant that the United States set the agenda and took the lead, while Europeans followed. The United States is now redefining its domestic and foreign policy priorities and interests. Europeans, too, recognize that they need to reduce their dependence on the United States in technology, defense and energy.”

What is driving this growing divergence?

“The United States’ top priority is China. For Europe, by contrast, the main priority and threat is Russia, in the context of the war in Ukraine. There is also a mismatch in timing and pace. The U.S. administration is in a hurry. It wants Europeans to accelerate military spending and take greater responsibility for their own security and defense. Europe needs more time.”

Is Italy doing enough to meet its NATO commitments?

“I think we have focused too much on the numbers: 2% before, and now 5%. These percentages do not measure the real objectives or the tangible impact of increased defense spending. The United States is making it clear that it wants to reduce its military presence in Europe and its assistance to Ukraine. We are asking ourselves how to build the future of European defense, and I see Italy playing a crucial role in these discussions.”

What kind of future are we preparing for?

“A future with less America. Europeans need to come together and agree on which capabilities and strategic support assets they should invest in to make up for a reduction in essential capabilities currently provided by the United States.”

Time does not seem to be on our side.

“The message from the United States is: ‘We don't have time. We're in a hurry.’ Europeans must demonstrate that they are already making significant investments in their military capabilities and defense industries. Italy, for its part, is doing so.”

Should Europe demonstrate its commitment to the United States, perhaps to ease tensions?

“We need a very frank conversation with our American counterparts. The process is underway, but if the United States does not want to leave Europe with a gap in capabilities, credibility or leadership, we need to adjust the timeline somewhat, in the long-term interests of both America and Europe.”

Europe’s political landscape is already changing. The elections in Serbia are one example. What do you expect from a government backed by a student movement?

“For now, there is considerable uncertainty because the student movement is not really a political party. A great deal of work will be needed to give it an adequate governing structure. It is interesting, however, that after Hungary, Serbia is also seeing a reversal of some political trends. This contrasts with developments elsewhere, particularly in Western Europe, where the far right is gaining ground.”

The outcome of the Israeli elections remains uncertain. What consequences could it have for U.S. policy in the region?

“It is difficult to say at this stage. But depending on the outcome, it will be very interesting to see how the U.S. administration responds and what the consequences might be for ongoing military operations in Iran.”

Young people and students are taking to the streets across Europe to demand greater attention to their needs. How can governments build public support for increased defense spending?

“This is not a crisis of democracy. It is a crisis of governments’ ability to deliver results — or, rather, of what citizens perceive as their governments’ inability to respond to their needs. As for military spending, I don't think there is genuine public consensus or strong popular support for increasing it or providing more assistance to Ukraine. Political leaders have failed to explain to citizens why it matters. Investing in defense and technological innovation also means investing in resilience and energy security.”

Could a Democratic victory in the U.S. midterm elections change the Trump administration’s approach to Europe?

“The midterm elections will not radically change the administration’s policies. Ultimately, the president sets foreign policy. But if the Democrats win, there will probably be more debate — not only about relations with Europe and the reduction of U.S. troops on the continent, but also about Iran, relations with Israel and Ukraine, and ties with Russia.”

Returning to the Russian threat, how realistic is the possibility that Moscow could attack Europe or a NATO member?

“Russia is already conducting hybrid operations in European countries. We sometimes forget that, before becoming a conventional war, the conflict in Ukraine was a hybrid war. We should prepare for every possible scenario, with or without the United States.”

Is Europe preparing quickly enough?

“The Nordic and Baltic countries have been preparing for a long time. They are much further ahead than France, Germany and, of course, Italy. Their populations are prepared. If the U.S. administration were to say, ‘This is not our concern,’ the response would have to come from Europe. That would probably be the most important test of Europe’s ability to defend its own security.”

Cyberwarfare may seem like a distant, theoretical threat, but...

“No, it is not a theoretical threat. It is very real. It can paralyze a country, its hospitals or its banking system.”

The most serious attacks are often attributed, directly or indirectly, to Russia.

“Yes, and we will see more and more of them, because launching a cyberattack is easier than carrying out a conventional attack. People need to understand that this will be a recurring threat.”